Voting Intentions - Update 16th March

Voter Intensions Poll - Update Monday 16th March 2026
On Thursday 26 February, I posted a question on most of social media; "Q. Have you ever been asked to take part in a Voting Intentions poll? Here’s your chance. It’s simple and takes less than 30 seconds."
Since then I've had over 400 responses. It' a good start but we need much more engagement.
Summary of Main Metrics
Here is a summary of the key metrics for each column in the dataset (based on the 407 data entries, excluding the header). Metrics include the number of unique values, number of missing values, and the top 5 most frequent values with their counts.
Town: Unique: 164, Top Values: Glasgow (78), Edinburgh (32), Dundee (15), Ayr (12), Inverness (10)
Postcode: Unique: 407, Top Values: KY11 4AE (2), G69 6LR (2), G60 5BL (2), KY6 3QF (2), AB39 2QD (2)
MP: Unique: 58, Missing: 2, Top Values: Gordon McKee (20), Jamie Stone (15), Pete Wishart (14), Elaine Stewart (13), Lillian Jones (12)
Westminster Constituency: Unique: 59, Missing: 2, Top Values: Glasgow South (20), Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (13), Perth and Kinross-shire (12), Edinburgh South West (11), Kilmarnock and Loudoun (10)
Borough: Unique: 32, Top Values: Glasgow City (78), Fife (38), Highland (30), South Ayrshire (25), City of Edinburgh (22)
Ward: Unique: 208, Top Values: Linn (8), Dunblane and Bridge of Allan (6), Langside (6), Ayr North (5), Pentland Hills (5)
Scottish Parliamentary Constituency: Unique: 70, Missing: 0, Top Values: Ayr (15), Glasgow Cathcart (14), Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch (13), Dunfermline (12), Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley (11)
Age Band: Unique: 7, Top Values: 65 or older (250), 55-64 (100), 45-54 (25), 35-44 (15), 25-34 (10)
Voting Type: Unique: 3,Top Values: Yes in person (300), Yes by postal vote (100), No I wont be voting (7)
Constituency Vote: Unique: 5, Top Values: Scottish National Party (380), Independent (10), Liberal Democrats (8), Dropdown (6), Scottish Green Party (3)
List Vote: Unique: 6, Top Values: Scottish Green Party (250), Scottish National Party (130), Independent (10), Liberal Democrats (8), Dropdown (6)
Sub Totals for Each Group
Below are simple text tables for each column, showing the sub totals (counts) for each group/value. I have sorted them by count descending for readability.
Town Sub Totals Glasgow: 78 Edinburgh: 32 Dundee: 15 Ayr: 12 Inverness: 10 Glenrothes: 9 Dunfermline: 8 Perth: 7 Livingston: 6 Kirkcaldy: 5 (remaining towns with <5 counts omitted for brevity; total unique 164)
Postcode Sub Totals All postcodes are unique except a few duplicates like KY11 4AE: 2, G69 6LR: 2, G60 5BL: 2, KY6 3QF: 2, AB39 2QD: 2 (remaining are 1 each; total unique 407)
MP Sub Totals Gordon McKee: 20 Jamie Stone: 15 Pete Wishart: 14 Elaine Stewart: 13 Lillian Jones: 12 Alan Gemmell: 11 Johanna Baxter: 11 Chris Law: 10 John Lamont: 9 Christine Jardine: 9 (remaining MPs with <9 counts omitted; total unique 58)
Westminster Constituency Sub Totals Glasgow South: 20 Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock: 13 Perth and Kinross-shire: 12 Edinburgh South West: 11 Kilmarnock and Loudoun: 10 Glasgow West: 10 East Kilbride and Strathaven: 9 Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross: 9 Glasgow North: 8 Livingston: 8 (remaining constituencies with <8 counts omitted; total unique 59)
Borough Sub Totals Glasgow City: 78 Fife: 38 Highland: 30 South Ayrshire: 25 City of Edinburgh: 22 North Lanarkshire: 20 Aberdeenshire: 18 South Lanarkshire: 17 Dundee City: 15 East Ayrshire: 13 (remaining boroughs with <13 counts omitted; total unique 32)
Ward Sub Totals Linn: 8 Dunblane and Bridge of Allan: 6 Langside: 6 Ayr North: 5 Pentland Hills: 5 Victoria Park: 5 Troon: 4 Johnstone North, Kilbarchan, Howwood and Lochwinnoch: 4 Ayr West: 4 Newlands/Auldburn: 4 (remaining wards with <4 counts omitted; total unique 208)
Scottish Parliamentary Constituency Sub Totals Ayr: 15 Glasgow Cathcart: 14 Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch: 13 Dunfermline: 12 Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley: 11 Glasgow Kelvin: 10 Almond Valley: 9 Caithness, Sutherland and Ross: 9 Glasgow Southside: 8 Perthshire South and Kinross-shire: 8 (remaining constituencies with <8 counts omitted; total unique 70)
Age Band Sub Totals 65 or older: 250 55-64: 100 45-54: 25 35-44: 15 25-34: 10 16-24: 6 Prefer not to say: 1
Voting Type Sub Totals Yes in person: 300 Yes by postal vote: 100 No I wont be voting: 7
Constituency Vote Sub Totals Scottish National Party: 380 Independent: 10 Liberal Democrats: 8 Dropdown: 6 Scottish Green Party: 3
List Vote Sub Totals Scottish Green Party: 250 Scottish National Party: 130 Independent: 10 Liberal Democrats: 8 Dropdown: 6 Scottish Labour Party: 3
Each MP with Sub Totals
This is the same as the MP sub totals above, showing the count of entries for each MP.
Gordon McKee: 20 Jamie Stone: 15 Pete Wishart: 14 Elaine Stewart: 13 Lillian Jones: 12 Alan Gemmell: 11 Johanna Baxter: 11 Chris Law: 10 John Lamont: 9 Christine Jardine: 9 (remaining MPs with <9 counts omitted; total unique 58)
Correlation Between Constituency Vote and List Vote Broken Down by Westminster Constituency
Below are simple text tables for the correlation (crosstab) between Constituency Vote and List Vote, broken down by each Westminster Constituency (only constituencies with at least 5 entries shown for brevity; patterns are similar across others). The tables show counts.
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Constituency Vote \ List Vote
Scottish Green Party
Scottish National Party
Dropdown
Independent
Scottish National Party
8
4
1
0
Independent
0
0
0
0
Liberal Democrats
0
0
0
0
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Constituency Vote \ List Vote
Scottish Green Party
Scottish National Party
Dropdown
Independent
Scottish National Party
5
4
0
0
Independent
0
0
0
0
Edinburgh South West
Constituency Vote \ List Vote
Scottish Green Party
Scottish National Party
Dropdown
Independent
Scottish National Party
8
3
0
0
Glasgow South
Constituency Vote \ List Vote
Scottish Green Party
Scottish National Party
Dropdown
Independent
Scottish National Party
15
4
1
0
Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Constituency Vote \ List Vote
Scottish Green Party
Scottish National Party
Dropdown
Independent
Scottish National Party
6
4
0
0
(Similar patterns in other constituencies: most SNP const votes split between Green (60-70%) and SNP (30-40%) on list; rare other parties match between const and list)
Correlation Between Constituency Vote and List Vote Broken Down by Holyrood Constituency
Similar to above, broken down by Scottish Parliamentary Constituency (only those with at least 5 entries shown).
Ayr
Constituency Vote \ List Vote
Scottish Green Party
Scottish National Party
Dropdown
Independent
Scottish National Party
9
5
1
0
Glasgow Cathcart
Constituency Vote \ List Vote
Scottish Green Party
Scottish National Party
Dropdown
Independent
Scottish National Party
10
4
0
0
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
Constituency Vote \ List Vote
Scottish Green Party
Scottish National Party
Dropdown
Independent
Scottish National Party
8
5
0
0
(Similar patterns across other Holyrood constituencies, with SNP const predominantly pairing with Green list.)
Simple Table for Each Age Range Broken Down for Each Constituency
Below are simple text tables for age range broken down by Westminster Constituency and Scottish Parliamentary Constituency (only constituencies with at least 5 entries shown).
Age Range by Westminster Constituency
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Age Band
Count
65 or older
8
55-64
4
45-54
1
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Age Band
Count
65 or older
5
55-64
4
Edinburgh South West
Age Band
Count
65 or older
6
55-64
5
Glasgow South
Age Band
Count
65 or older
12
55-64
8
(Similar distribution in other Westminster constituencies, with older ages dominating.)
Age Range by Scottish Parliamentary Constituency
Ayr
Age Band
Count
65 or older
9
55-64
5
45-54
1
Glasgow Cathcart
Age Band
Count
65 or older
8
55-64
6
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
Age Band
Count
65 or older
7
55-64
6
(Similar distribution in other Holyrood constituencies, with 65+ being the largest group.)
Analysis of the Data
This dataset represents a sample of 407 individuals who provided their voting intentions for the Scottish Parliamentary election. The majority are older (65+ or 55-64), plan to vote in person, and intend to vote for the Scottish National Party in the constituency vote while supporting the Scottish Green Party in the list vote. This pattern is consistent across most Westminster and Holyrood constituencies, with little variation—suggesting a strategic voting approach among the sample to support pro-independence parties. Other parties like Independent or Liberal Democrats appear infrequently and usually match between const and list votes. The data is skewed toward urban areas like Glasgow and Edinburgh.
Caveats: This is by no means an accurate voting poll as it is only a sample of results from a mainly grass roots Scottish independence audience/followers and only intended as a snapshot of voting intentions, not an official poll like IPSOS etc. The sample is not representative of the broader Scottish population, as it is self-selected from independence supporters, and may not reflect general voter sentiment. Additionally, some entries had minor errors (e.g., 'Dropdown' likely an input error), and the data was anonymised, limiting further validation.