Voter Poll Update - Saturday 28th

As of this morning, there are 150 responses to the voter poll since it went live on Thursday. Clearly this is a very small sample size so far, but as time goes on, the survey will become more useful. Ideally, we need 1,000+ responses.

Summary
This dataset of approximately 150 respondents is heavily weighted toward pro‑independence voters, with the vast majority identifying SNP as their constituency vote. Among these voters, a clear pattern emerges: most choose the Scottish Greens on the list ballot, while a smaller but significant minority remain SNP‑loyal. The sample is dominated by older voters and shows strong geographic clustering in Glasgow, the Highlands, Fife, and Ayrshire, with distinct regional and generational differences in list‑vote switching.

It is important to stress that this dataset is not representative of the wider Scottish electorate and is strongly skewed toward independence‑supporting respondents; the patterns observed here should be treated as indicative only until a much larger and more balanced sample is available.

KPI Snapshot and Strategic Briefing (Corrected for ~150 respondents)

1. Dataset Overview
Total entries: ~150
Coverage: Broad spread across Scotland, but uneven
Nature of sample: Overwhelmingly SNP/pro‑independence
Implication: Results reflect supporter‑base behaviour, not national opinion

2. Age Profile
The dataset is older‑skewed.
65+: ~60%
55–64: ~20%
45–54: ~10%
16–44 combined: ~10%
Interpretation: This is a high‑turnout demographic, but younger voters are under‑represented.

3. Voting Method
In‑person: ~70%
Postal: ~28%
Other/blank: ~2%
Interpretation: Postal voters are older and more turnout‑reliable.

4. Constituency Vote (First Vote)
SNP: ~95%
Other parties: ~5% combined
Interpretation: This is a supporter‑base dataset, not a representative poll.

5. List Vote (Second Vote) Behaviour
Among SNP constituency voters:
SNP → Scottish Greens: ~70%
SNP → SNP: ~25%
SNP → Other: ~5%
Interpretation: Tactical SNP→Green list voting is the dominant behaviour in this sample.

6. Regional Switching Index (0–100)
100 = fully SNP→Green; 0 = fully SNP→SNP
Region
Index
Interpretation
Glasgow City
~80
Strongest switching
Highlands & Islands
~75
Very strong switching
Fife
~75
Consistent switching
Dundee City
~70
Strong switching
Ayrshire
~60
Mixed but Green‑leaning
Lanarkshire
~50
Balanced
Borders
~45
SNP‑leaning
Aberdeenshire
~35
Strong SNP loyalty
Interpretation: Switching is strongest in urban and Highland areas; SNP loyalty is strongest in the NE and Borders.

7. Geographic Density
High‑density clusters appear in:
Highlands & Islands
Glasgow City
Fife
Ayrshire
Aberdeenshire
Interpretation: These clusters allow for constituency‑level segmentation, but the dataset is not evenly distributed.

8. Turnout‑Likelihood Model (Age × Method)
Group
Turnout Likelihood
Notes
65+ postal
Very high
Most reliable
65+ in‑person
High
Strong turnout
55–64 in‑person
Medium‑high
Consistent
45–54 in‑person
Medium
Needs mobilisation
16–34 in‑person
Low
Under‑represented
Interpretation: Mobilisation should focus on younger and mid‑age in‑person voters.

9. Critical Caveat
This dataset is not representative of Scotland’s electorate. It is:
heavily skewed toward SNP and pro‑independence voters,
disproportionately older,
geographically uneven,
missing undecided, unionist, and younger voters.

All findings should be treated as indicative of supporter‑base behaviour only, not as predictive of national voting intention.